Bigger Chance for an Upset: Nebraska or Florida?

So as I'm listening to some football (as I type Texas A&M is trying not to blow another second half lead, they are up on Arkansas 35-27 in the second half), we are bearing down on two big games tonight.  Both will be played at the same time, in two of the toughest places to play in all the land.  In one contest, Nebraska makes its Big 10 debut against Wisconsin on ABC and on CBS, Alabama heads to Florida's infamous Swamp to face a surging Gator team with one of the most dynamic players in the country in Chris Rainey.

So then, that begs the question: Which of the underdogs in tonight's main events, Nebraska or Florida, has a chance to pull off the upset?

At first glance, it seems there would be an easy answer to this question: Florida.  They're at home, with one of the fastest players in the country, a great running attack and this is Alabama's first real road test (I mean, come on Penn State wasn't even a game).  Meanwhile, Wisconsin is being highly touted, with one of the nation's top running attacks and a solid quarterback in Russell Wilson.  And, Nebraska's defense has been rather lackluster to begin the year.

But wait a minute, as Lee Corso would say: not so fast my friend.  I offer some other things to think about.  Disclaimer: I'm a Nebraska alum, so keep this in mind.

The first thing to consider in tonight's game in Madison is this: Wisconsin hasn't played anyone.  In their four games, they've played a UNLV team that lost to Southern Utah 41-16, an Oregon State team that hasn't even won a game, a half decent Northern Illinois team, and South Dakota.  Their schedule, needless to say has been rather lackluster.  If anything, the Badgers have something to prove as well.  I'm not going to brag about Nebraska's schedule, it hasn't been great but Washington, Fresno State and Wyoming are probably better than any team Wisconsin has played.

Also, Nebraska's team is built on speed.  Remember that Nebraska played in a pass happy conference for a number of years so they have had to recruit speed to compete with fast, undersized Big 12 defenses and pass happy Big 12 offenses.  Wisconsin, for years, has been a physical team but has lacked the speed to keep up with truly elite teams.  The last time they played a team with any sort of speed was in last year's Rose Bowl against TCU and they lost.  How much faster have they really gotten in several months?  Wilson is an athletic player, I'll give you that.  But as a team, it's hard to say if they've really improved speed wise in less than a year.

Also, with regards to the game in the Swamp tonight: keep in mind Alabama is a battle tested road team.  They won't be intimidated by Florida's crowd even though their quarterback is inexperienced.

In the end, I would give both Nebraska and Florida about a 25 to 30 percent chance of pulling off the upset.  Maybe Florida has the slight edge because their game is a home game but both are probably about the same chance of an upset.  A lot of things will have to go right for either team to win.