10/22/18: The College Football and NFL Midterm Report

Been a while since I've done this. Don't know how many months.

You might have noticed the word "midterm" in the title. I put that in there for a reason. People may have noticed there is a rather...big...midterm election day two weeks from tomorrow. Without discussing too much, no matter what side of the ledger you stand on, I encourage everyone to go exercise their civic rights and go vote.

Well, now that that's cleared up...

We are also pretty much halfway through both the college football and NFL seasons (college might be a little more than half done), so I think it's time for a midterm report for both the college and pro levels.

Let's start with the college game. I'll first make this point: Unless they have major injuries, in college football this year it's Alabama and everyone else.

I'll put it this way: If Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame or heaven forbid anyone else plays their A-game and Bama plays their A-game, Bama's A-game wins every time this year.

The one Achilles heel for Alabama, through all the years Saban has been coaching, is the quarterback. A.J. McCarron was a very good player for Alabama when he played there. He won two national titles, and nearly a three-peat until that fluky game against Auburn.

But Tua Tagovailoa is a stud. The scary thing? That guy's got this year AND next before he goes to the NFL. He is by far the best quarterback Saban has had at Alabama...it's not close. They were up 28-0 on Tennessee - a program that is improving though you can't see it yet - before you could even blink.

Could LSU beat them in two weeks? Yeah. Anything can happen in Death Valley at night. But LSU's A-game cannot beat Alabama's A-game. It's just that simple. With that QB, they have ZERO weaknesses. And their defense is getting better, as the CBS guys said Saturday? Yikes.

That having been said, here are some teams that in my view are overrated, underrated, should be rated, improving and maybe even a few disappointments mixed in:

Overrated: Georgia. Way overrated. This team is ranked 7th in the AP Poll and 6th by the Coaches Poll. You have to be kidding me. Want to know the combined records of the teams Georgia has beat? 20-22. The one good team they played was LSU who beat them by 20 points. It wasn't close.

Could they prove me wrong and beat Florida, sure they could. But they aren't even close to being a national title caliber team this year. They had their shot last year and blew it. They also have major offensive line issues: LSU sacked Jake Fromm three times in that game.

Oklahoma. Another team that had a great look at a title with Mayfield a year ago and blew it...now they aren't quite the same team. They're ranked 8th in both polls. Not a top 10 team in my view.

This is also a team that gives up a bunch of points on a weekly basis: 27 to Iowa State, 33 to Baylor, 48 to Texas and 27 to TCU. They still have to play Texas Tech, Oklahoma State (though in a down year) and at West Virginia before the season is over too. That Texas loss won't be their last loss this year.

Kentucky - They're a great story, only lost to A&M in a very close overtime game, but I'm not sure I'd have them at 12th which is where the AP has them. 14th where the Coaches has them is a bit better.

They are seven point underdogs to Mizzou for a reason this week, and they still have to play Georgia and an improving Tennessee squad as well.

Underrated:

Central Florida - Riddle me this: Central Florida has won 20 straight games. Yes, 20 straight games and will likely be favored to run the table once again. Yet, they are ranked TENTH by both college football polls.

This is criminally awful in my view. With that streak, and having beaten very good South Florida and Auburn teams in that stretch, they should be in the hunt to go to the PLAYOFF, not ranked 10th and having next to no shot. The playoff as it is now is better than the BCS, but it's exclusive to only a select few.

Texas A&M - Yes, the Aggies have two losses, but in my view at 16th they are kind of underrated, and they did beat Kentucky in OT. Besides, look at who those losses came to. The best team, Alabama (and they covered the point spread) and the second best team, Clemson, by only two points.

If the Aggies run the table and beat LSU, they will have a very good shot to be in a New Year's Six bowl game. As they should.

Washington State - Ranked 14th and 15th, despite having one loss (which was a very close game in and of itself). The Pirate, Mike Leach, despite the terrible ending to last year's season, just continues to win games.

They aren't out of the woods; they still have to win at Stanford (this week) and at home against their rival, Washington. But win both of those games, and you might see Mike Leach sail into a Pac-12 title game...or better yet, win it.

South Florida - How must it feel for Charlie Strong to have an undefeated football team (and a very strong team for the second year in a row) and not only barely crack the top 20, worse yet be 7.5 point underdogs on the road at Houston this week? Talk about no respect.

Disappointments:

Washington - When I think disappointments, Washington comes to mind for me. When I looked at this team and their veteran QB, Jake Browning, and their conference, and I looked at their schedule, I thought: OK, if they get by Auburn, they have a real good shot to run the table and be in the Final Four, right?

Well, they didn't get by Auburn and then they went to Oregon and blew that game too. Now, even though they control their own destiny once again, they still have to get by Stanford and their state neighbors from the Palouse.

Auburn - I didn't necessarily think Auburn was a national title contender this year, or even a conference title contender, but I thought with Stidham, the former Baylor signal caller, at quarterback, that if things broke their way they could surprise people again.

They already have three losses and are out of any sort of conference title contention.

Wisconsin - Another team that, when I looked at their schedule, I thought, OK, this team might lose one or two games, but they'll win their division rather easily. No one else is any good. Some thought this team could have a chance to compete for the Final Four.

But following a HOME loss to BYU (though out of conference), a near disaster at Iowa, and a blowout loss at Michigan, this team is far from a lock to win their own DIVISION. Iowa is playing good ball and Wisconsin has loseable games left.

Improving:

Tennessee - There won't be many wins right away for the Vols, but at times, the potential has been there for how good this program can be under Jeremy Pruitt. Yes, they got smacked by Alabama. Everyone gets smacked by Alabama this year.

Beating Auburn at Auburn, no matter how disappointing they are, was a big step for Tennessee going forward. If the Vols are lucky they might squeak seven wins this year. Their last five games are all winnable. Not saying they'll win em all, but they're winnable. Even Kentucky goes to Neyland.

UCLA - Don't look now, but the Bruins have won two games in a row, after a very rough start for Chip Kelly. They've got the Utes coming to town on a short week. If I was Utah, I would not take that game lightly.

Nebraska - I think we Nebraska fans knew the going might be rough for Scott Frost and the Huskers at first, but if you were buying stock in a team, I think Fox analyst Joel Klatt said it best.

You buy the Huskers now and watch that stock slowly rise over the next few years. It will take time before they win nine games on the reg again, but what they can be showed in last week's win. The team has gotten better week to week since getting rid of some program cancers. Ohio State game will be rough, but the team might win a couple more games this year.

On the NFL side, we're also pretty much halfway through the year, maybe a tad less including the Giants/Atlanta game tonight. Some surprises and disappointments from there too:

Surprises:

Washington - Considering Philly was a Super Bowl favorite coming into the year (more on them later), it's quite the surprise that it's Alex Smith and the Redskins that are the first place team so far.

Smith is doing what Smith does, be very efficient. He's completed 63 percent of his passes, for nearly 1400 yards, seven touchdowns and two picks with a QB rating of 91.9.

The Redskins aren't in the clear by any means, but they're the favorite in the NFC East right now because Philly has lost its way a bit.

Detroit - After their first two games, I thought, oh boy this team's headed for the bottom of the barrel.

But lo and behold after three of their last four including wins over Brady and Rodgers, the pesky Lions are 3-3 and right back in the playoff hunt. As per usual, Matt Stafford is leading the charge for them; his numbers are actually better than Smith. Better QB rating, better completion percentage, more yards, more touchdowns.

Their next games are key though. Home for Seattle, and then even tougher; in November they play the Vikings, the Bears twice and the Panthers once. And then a home game with the Rams.

Carolina - I know they had a quality team last year but usually it's every other year they have a really good team. This time they've got it back to back. That comeback in Philly was impressive. I thought New Orleans would run away with that division but Carolina is staying in it.

Kansas City - I wondered how good they'd be with the first year guy, Mahomes, at QB this year.

I didn't think they'd be this good.

If given a choice I'd still go with the Pats and their experience in January but Mahomes has made a statement. He is elite, as I thought he was when he came out in the draft. I thought it might take a year or two. It's taken no time at all.

Disappointments:

Philadelphia - I think coming off the season they had a year ago, most of us including myself thought: This team could win it all again. Devastating running game. Tough defense. Two very good QBs. Pederson's a good coach. They're loaded.

I picked the Saints to go to the Super Bowl but I wouldn't have been surprised if Philly won it all again.

They have lost their way. I don't know what's going on there, but if you're the defending champs and you have a 17 point lead in the fourth, you find a way to get that game won.

Pittsburgh - They too seem to be a franchise in a bit of a rut. LeVeon Bell's not playing, their defense doesn't resemble the Steel Curtain at all and even though they got a big division win over Cincinnati recently, that division seems a mish-mash of average to above average teams. Maybe they win it but they're nowhere near what I consider to be a championship caliber team.

Jacksonville - What has become obvious is that without Leonard Fournette, Blake Bortles and Jacksonville are nothing. He's only played in two games this year, against the Giants and Jets. Without him, the Jags are 1-4 and are no longer the favorite to win that division with the Texans having the three AFC South teams at home in the back half of the season.

If given a choice, Patriots/Saints is still my Super Bowl pick, just as it was at the beginning of the season. The LA Rams are the best team in the NFL RIGHT NOW, yes. But in January, I will bet on Drew Brees.

Thus ends the NFL and college football midterm report.

Until next time....

Baseball, Barkley vs Draymond, The NFL Draft and more 5/2/18

Good Wednesday afternoon, folks, wherever you may be. May 2, 2018. Baseball is in full swing. Baseball and hockey playoffs galore. Kentucky Derby is Saturday. NFL Draft last weekend. Plus there are a few things I wish to backtrack and cover. Off we go.

Let's start with a current event, that being the Charles Barkley/Draymond Green spat that started last night. For those fans who may have went to sleep early last night and still haven't heard, Charles Barkley and Draymond Green had a war of words during and after Game Two of the Pelicans/Warriors series last night. It stemmed from a scuffle between Green and Rajon Rondo of New Orleans.

Barkley, quote unquote, "I just want someone to punch him in the face."

Then, seconds later, he said, "I really do. I want someone to punch him in the face."

Now, it didn't take Draymond long to respond, because after the Warriors won last night he had some words of his own:

"A lot of guys talk on the TV...stand behind the microphone on the TV screen. Fact of the matter is, if you feel that strongly about something, he's even seen me a million times, then punch me in my face when you see me."

Now, as a Rockets fan who lives in Houston, I have the sense we have no love lost for either of these guys. But something tells me that Draymond isn't all that concerned with Barkley. He's got bigger things to worry about.

Big game for the Rockets tonight, by the way, as they host Utah in game two of the other Western Conference semifinal. The Rockets really need to win this game and go to Utah up 2-0. Utah's home court edge is lethal as Rockets fans know so well; if they somehow squeak one out tonight the Rockets are suddenly in a real dogfight.

Over in the East, let's just say this: The Toronto Raptors are cursed. Cleveland just came off a seventh game win over the weekend, was on 48 hours rest, and Toronto had a double digit lead...and lost.

If they can't beat the Cavs under these circumstances...then when?

As for the Boston/Philadelphia series, Terry Rozier has been quite the find for Boston in point guard Kyrie Irving's absence. Trade bait for down the road?

On to baseball now for just a moment. Honestly, it's way too early for any sort of smack talk early in the baseball season...except when a whiny pitcher on a team who can't hold two game series leads opens his mouth and spews...well, some people may call it fake news, I just call it garbage.

That whiny pitcher is Trevor Bauer of the Cleveland Indians. Take a look: Bauer on the Astros

And you know that Astros pitchers are cheating...how, Trevor? Where's the proof? You know, fans will be fans. It's what we do. But it's another thing entirely for an MLB pitcher to be spouting that garbage, without any proof at all.

Rightfully, many Astros players and even manager AJ Hinch raked him over the coals for that on Twitter yesterday. Hopefully the next time the Astros see Bauer, it will be about 6-0 after the first inning. Not in his favor either.

Very quickly on the NFL Draft, a lot of people will pay attention to the first round and the big names, QBs, etc. that went early but honestly, in reality it's going to be the second and third day picks that determine, in the end, how well these teams do in the draft.

Because, honestly, I'm not sold on any of these quarterbacks. Mayfield I think is a bust waiting to happen, Darnold should have come out last year, Allen to Buffalo is a big risk, and Josh Rosen could make Arizona a bit better but their window came and went and they have to deal with the Rams and 49ers now.

Honestly I think the two biggest steals of the draft were by New England and Houston. I love the Pats getting Michel from Georgia. That's such a Belichick move. I watched the first round Thursday night and wondered when he'd be taken. Then, boom. Pats. He will no doubt be asked to do what a lot of Patriots running backs do, get key carries, catch passes out of the backfield a lot, basically do everything right. I think he's underrated.

I really like the Texans picking up Justin Reid in round 3 also. That guy was supposed to be a first round pick and suddenly dropped to round three...something's up with that. I have a theory on that, but I won't go there here.

Backtracking on a couple of things: First, the NCAA basketball tournament. This year was a great NCAA basketball tournament to be honest. Lots of different things to get casual fans attention. The run by Loyola-Chicago and the fame Sister Jean got received a lot of attention, deservedly so.

Kansas/Duke was a terrific Elite Eight game, IMO the best game of the tournament.

UMBC shocked the world and became the first 16 seed to knock out a number one. What a crazy night that was. That's something UVA and Tony Bennett will never live down. Ever.

I was really impressed by Texas Tech's run also. Chris Beard is a good coach (as he was in Little Rock) and they were a good team. Just ran into the best team and got beat. Nothing to be ashamed of. No idea who Tech brings back next year but if it's the majority of their team they are a definite national title contender.

That team that beat them, by the way, Villanova, is one of the most fun basketball teams I've ever seen. One of the best too, honestly. They could all shoot, all drive, all move the ball, etc. That's the basketball I like.

I'd say I felt bad for a Big 10 school getting beat by them for the title...but honestly I'm not. Houston should have beat Michigan the opening weekend. I'm still in shock Poole made that shot. Houston made a glaring error not covering the inbounds pass.

Finally, I want to touch on a college football story that really got me going not long ago.

Does anyone remember Hugh Freeze? You know, the same Hugh Freeze that got Ole Miss football 21 NCAA violations, a postseason ban and got caught using a female escort service?

He was forced to either resign or be fired. He resigned.

Well he was back in the news not long ago. Apparently, four SEC schools wanted to hire Freeze recently including none other than Alabama, where Nick Saban wanted him to basically run the Crimson Tide offense.

Thank goodness the SEC stepped in and Sankey told Saban and all the other schools who wanted him that it would look really bad for the conference if Freeze got another gig so soon.

My message on that is: Shame on you, Alabama. You are Alabama, the best there is in college football.

You do not need to go rolling around in the dirt with scum like Hugh Freeze. You're the best program there is. Act like it.

Until next time....

Super Bowl LII: Destiny Beats Dynasty

Man. It's been a long time since I've done this.

An entire football season in fact. Crazy.

But, I think after another terrific Super Bowl, the time has come for me to resurface again with this. Lots to get to as another football season, thankfully for me because my two teams were absolutely horrible, has come to an end.

But what a way to end it.

Super Bowl LII: Philadelphia Eagles, underdogs the whole way through vs the New England Patriots. The Dynasty. Five time champs. The best quarterback to ever play the game.

If you'd have told me that Brady would throw for 500 yards I'd have told you there's no way Philadelphia would be walking away with the trophy.

But walk away with the trophy they did. Because Nick Foles, who at one point was out of football after several various stops, gave it one more chance not long ago and eventually got a ring.

He earned it too. He played the game of his life. The Patriots could not stop the Philadelphia Eagles offense and Nick Foles' passing attack.

Even when the Patriots (predictably) took the lead 33-32 in the fourth quarter, the Eagles did not fold as Atlanta did a year ago when the Patriots came back on them. That next drive after the Patriots took the lead was clutch; a seven minute drive that drained almost all of the clock.

Yes, Brady had one more shot after that, but the Eagles defense finally did what I felt they had to do in the most critical moment of the game; get to him and apply pressure. That's what caused the turnover that was the biggest nail in the coffin to the Patriots on Sunday.

A few other things I took out of that Super Bowl:

1. I don't know if it was jitters or what, but the kicking game for both teams early in the Super Bowl was really ragged. A couple of extra points missed, a chipshot field goal missed by New England, etc.

2. Philadelphia has three very good running backs which is a huge advantage. Obviously the quarterback is the most important position but depth at running back is key too. Philly has three good ones in Blount, Ajayi and former Wisconsin Badger Corey Clement. One of them is going to free agency...Blount. My guess is he will not be back in Philly next year, they can afford to lose him. Ajayi still has one year on his deal and Clement still has a couple.

3. I still wonder how Patriots receivers get so wide open. Every game.

4. Gronkowski of the Patriots is still the most impossible receiver or tight end to cover in football. That guy is a matchup nightmare.

5. As great as that moment was for Foles, I sense that he could be used as trade bait. He has the choice to option out of his contract after next season and Carson Wentz is still the guy in Philadelphia, playoff run aside. He can be used as bait to get a key guy on defense.

With that said, my way-too-early top 5 for 2018:

1. New England - No folks, the Patriot Death Star isn't going anywhere. Yes, they lost their top two coordinators, but it's still Brady and Belichick. The dynasty is close to being over but it isn't over yet. They will be the team to beat once again barring injury.

2. New Orleans - The Saints are very good and could very easily have been in at least the NFC title game this year. Weapons all over the field; Brees, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara (who is an impressive, explosive young player), Michael Thomas, Willie Snead.

And they have a defense now too.

Their division isn't very good either. Tampa Bay hasn't lived up to what I thought they would, Carolina is ruining Cam Newton, and Atlanta is on the downside. The Saints will win 12 or 13 next year barring injury IMHO.

3. Philadelphia - Maybe they won't go back to back but this is the beginning of a great run for Philadelphia. Carson Wentz has many years ahead of him, two great running backs, very good front four. They will definitely be back in the playoffs a year from now with a shot to repeat.

4. Jacksonville - The arrival of Tom Coughlin to the Jaguars front office changed everything about that team. The expectations, the attitude, etc. They have the talent to win a lot of games and now they act like it. They have a ferocious defense and Fournette and I think with a weak AFC South in front of them they will be right back in contention again.

5. Dallas - This is the out on a limb pick.

I don't even like the Cowboys, but they definitely would have been in the playoffs had Goodell not screwed with Jerry Jones and Elliott. Now Zeke has that behind him and can focus on football. If Elliott plays all 17 and Dallas can shore the defense up somewhat they will definitely be in the playoffs and can make a deep run.

To a bit of college football now. Alabama won the title once again, basically business as usual for them. The second time that Alabama did not win its conference, yet walked out with the big trophy. Funny thing is, the Alabama team of 2016-17 was probably better than this one but lost because of one player. Yet, this year's team walked out with a trophy.

Also the third straight time that Alabama and Clemson met in the playoffs this year, and all three times the winner of that game won the title. And if those two programs keep on the same trajectories, it'll probably happen again in 2019.

On the other side of that national title game, I know a lot of people will be high on Georgia once again with Smart running the show, but I don't think they'll get that good a look again personally. Their SEC West crossovers are LSU and Auburn, and the East will get better. Florida will be better with Mullen, South Carolina is improved with Muschamp running the show, Tennessee you know will have to be better.

One last quick thought on college football especially for any Aggies that may run across this: You vastly overpaid for Fisher. 10 years guaranteed and 75 million. Bad move. By comparison, Nebraska's Scott Frost contract (35 million over 7 years) is a total bargain. There's no way I'd give any coach 10 guaranteed years with that much money.

I said this after the Ags gave Fisher that contract and I'll say it again: If I was Kirk Ferentz at Iowa I'd have walked into Gary Barta's (athletic director) office and told him, "You're paying me 5 million to go 7-5 every year and look what Jimbo Fisher is getting. I want a raise."

And my guess is he'd get it too.

I'll get back more into college football with recruiting signing day coming up tomorrow, will probably have a recap later this week.

Until next time....