Monday, October 22, 2018

10/22/18: The College Football and NFL Midterm Report

Been a while since I've done this. Don't know how many months.

You might have noticed the word "midterm" in the title. I put that in there for a reason. People may have noticed there is a rather...big...midterm election day two weeks from tomorrow. Without discussing too much, no matter what side of the ledger you stand on, I encourage everyone to go exercise their civic rights and go vote.

Well, now that that's cleared up...

We are also pretty much halfway through both the college football and NFL seasons (college might be a little more than half done), so I think it's time for a midterm report for both the college and pro levels.

Let's start with the college game. I'll first make this point: Unless they have major injuries, in college football this year it's Alabama and everyone else.

I'll put it this way: If Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame or heaven forbid anyone else plays their A-game and Bama plays their A-game, Bama's A-game wins every time this year.

The one Achilles heel for Alabama, through all the years Saban has been coaching, is the quarterback. A.J. McCarron was a very good player for Alabama when he played there. He won two national titles, and nearly a three-peat until that fluky game against Auburn.

But Tua Tagovailoa is a stud. The scary thing? That guy's got this year AND next before he goes to the NFL. He is by far the best quarterback Saban has had at Alabama...it's not close. They were up 28-0 on Tennessee - a program that is improving though you can't see it yet - before you could even blink.

Could LSU beat them in two weeks? Yeah. Anything can happen in Death Valley at night. But LSU's A-game cannot beat Alabama's A-game. It's just that simple. With that QB, they have ZERO weaknesses. And their defense is getting better, as the CBS guys said Saturday? Yikes.

That having been said, here are some teams that in my view are overrated, underrated, should be rated, improving and maybe even a few disappointments mixed in:

Overrated: Georgia. Way overrated. This team is ranked 7th in the AP Poll and 6th by the Coaches Poll. You have to be kidding me. Want to know the combined records of the teams Georgia has beat? 20-22. The one good team they played was LSU who beat them by 20 points. It wasn't close.

Could they prove me wrong and beat Florida, sure they could. But they aren't even close to being a national title caliber team this year. They had their shot last year and blew it. They also have major offensive line issues: LSU sacked Jake Fromm three times in that game.

Oklahoma. Another team that had a great look at a title with Mayfield a year ago and blew it...now they aren't quite the same team. They're ranked 8th in both polls. Not a top 10 team in my view.

This is also a team that gives up a bunch of points on a weekly basis: 27 to Iowa State, 33 to Baylor, 48 to Texas and 27 to TCU. They still have to play Texas Tech, Oklahoma State (though in a down year) and at West Virginia before the season is over too. That Texas loss won't be their last loss this year.

Kentucky - They're a great story, only lost to A&M in a very close overtime game, but I'm not sure I'd have them at 12th which is where the AP has them. 14th where the Coaches has them is a bit better.

They are seven point underdogs to Mizzou for a reason this week, and they still have to play Georgia and an improving Tennessee squad as well.

Underrated:

Central Florida - Riddle me this: Central Florida has won 20 straight games. Yes, 20 straight games and will likely be favored to run the table once again. Yet, they are ranked TENTH by both college football polls.

This is criminally awful in my view. With that streak, and having beaten very good South Florida and Auburn teams in that stretch, they should be in the hunt to go to the PLAYOFF, not ranked 10th and having next to no shot. The playoff as it is now is better than the BCS, but it's exclusive to only a select few.

Texas A&M - Yes, the Aggies have two losses, but in my view at 16th they are kind of underrated, and they did beat Kentucky in OT. Besides, look at who those losses came to. The best team, Alabama (and they covered the point spread) and the second best team, Clemson, by only two points.

If the Aggies run the table and beat LSU, they will have a very good shot to be in a New Year's Six bowl game. As they should.

Washington State - Ranked 14th and 15th, despite having one loss (which was a very close game in and of itself). The Pirate, Mike Leach, despite the terrible ending to last year's season, just continues to win games.

They aren't out of the woods; they still have to win at Stanford (this week) and at home against their rival, Washington. But win both of those games, and you might see Mike Leach sail into a Pac-12 title game...or better yet, win it.

South Florida - How must it feel for Charlie Strong to have an undefeated football team (and a very strong team for the second year in a row) and not only barely crack the top 20, worse yet be 7.5 point underdogs on the road at Houston this week? Talk about no respect.

Disappointments:

Washington - When I think disappointments, Washington comes to mind for me. When I looked at this team and their veteran QB, Jake Browning, and their conference, and I looked at their schedule, I thought: OK, if they get by Auburn, they have a real good shot to run the table and be in the Final Four, right?

Well, they didn't get by Auburn and then they went to Oregon and blew that game too. Now, even though they control their own destiny once again, they still have to get by Stanford and their state neighbors from the Palouse.

Auburn - I didn't necessarily think Auburn was a national title contender this year, or even a conference title contender, but I thought with Stidham, the former Baylor signal caller, at quarterback, that if things broke their way they could surprise people again.

They already have three losses and are out of any sort of conference title contention.

Wisconsin - Another team that, when I looked at their schedule, I thought, OK, this team might lose one or two games, but they'll win their division rather easily. No one else is any good. Some thought this team could have a chance to compete for the Final Four.

But following a HOME loss to BYU (though out of conference), a near disaster at Iowa, and a blowout loss at Michigan, this team is far from a lock to win their own DIVISION. Iowa is playing good ball and Wisconsin has loseable games left.

Improving:

Tennessee - There won't be many wins right away for the Vols, but at times, the potential has been there for how good this program can be under Jeremy Pruitt. Yes, they got smacked by Alabama. Everyone gets smacked by Alabama this year.

Beating Auburn at Auburn, no matter how disappointing they are, was a big step for Tennessee going forward. If the Vols are lucky they might squeak seven wins this year. Their last five games are all winnable. Not saying they'll win em all, but they're winnable. Even Kentucky goes to Neyland.

UCLA - Don't look now, but the Bruins have won two games in a row, after a very rough start for Chip Kelly. They've got the Utes coming to town on a short week. If I was Utah, I would not take that game lightly.

Nebraska - I think we Nebraska fans knew the going might be rough for Scott Frost and the Huskers at first, but if you were buying stock in a team, I think Fox analyst Joel Klatt said it best.

You buy the Huskers now and watch that stock slowly rise over the next few years. It will take time before they win nine games on the reg again, but what they can be showed in last week's win. The team has gotten better week to week since getting rid of some program cancers. Ohio State game will be rough, but the team might win a couple more games this year.

On the NFL side, we're also pretty much halfway through the year, maybe a tad less including the Giants/Atlanta game tonight. Some surprises and disappointments from there too:

Surprises:

Washington - Considering Philly was a Super Bowl favorite coming into the year (more on them later), it's quite the surprise that it's Alex Smith and the Redskins that are the first place team so far.

Smith is doing what Smith does, be very efficient. He's completed 63 percent of his passes, for nearly 1400 yards, seven touchdowns and two picks with a QB rating of 91.9.

The Redskins aren't in the clear by any means, but they're the favorite in the NFC East right now because Philly has lost its way a bit.

Detroit - After their first two games, I thought, oh boy this team's headed for the bottom of the barrel.

But lo and behold after three of their last four including wins over Brady and Rodgers, the pesky Lions are 3-3 and right back in the playoff hunt. As per usual, Matt Stafford is leading the charge for them; his numbers are actually better than Smith. Better QB rating, better completion percentage, more yards, more touchdowns.

Their next games are key though. Home for Seattle, and then even tougher; in November they play the Vikings, the Bears twice and the Panthers once. And then a home game with the Rams.

Carolina - I know they had a quality team last year but usually it's every other year they have a really good team. This time they've got it back to back. That comeback in Philly was impressive. I thought New Orleans would run away with that division but Carolina is staying in it.

Kansas City - I wondered how good they'd be with the first year guy, Mahomes, at QB this year.

I didn't think they'd be this good.

If given a choice I'd still go with the Pats and their experience in January but Mahomes has made a statement. He is elite, as I thought he was when he came out in the draft. I thought it might take a year or two. It's taken no time at all.

Disappointments:

Philadelphia - I think coming off the season they had a year ago, most of us including myself thought: This team could win it all again. Devastating running game. Tough defense. Two very good QBs. Pederson's a good coach. They're loaded.

I picked the Saints to go to the Super Bowl but I wouldn't have been surprised if Philly won it all again.

They have lost their way. I don't know what's going on there, but if you're the defending champs and you have a 17 point lead in the fourth, you find a way to get that game won.

Pittsburgh - They too seem to be a franchise in a bit of a rut. LeVeon Bell's not playing, their defense doesn't resemble the Steel Curtain at all and even though they got a big division win over Cincinnati recently, that division seems a mish-mash of average to above average teams. Maybe they win it but they're nowhere near what I consider to be a championship caliber team.

Jacksonville - What has become obvious is that without Leonard Fournette, Blake Bortles and Jacksonville are nothing. He's only played in two games this year, against the Giants and Jets. Without him, the Jags are 1-4 and are no longer the favorite to win that division with the Texans having the three AFC South teams at home in the back half of the season.

If given a choice, Patriots/Saints is still my Super Bowl pick, just as it was at the beginning of the season. The LA Rams are the best team in the NFL RIGHT NOW, yes. But in January, I will bet on Drew Brees.

Thus ends the NFL and college football midterm report.

Until next time....

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Baseball, Barkley vs Draymond, The NFL Draft and more 5/2/18

Good Wednesday afternoon, folks, wherever you may be. May 2, 2018. Baseball is in full swing. Baseball and hockey playoffs galore. Kentucky Derby is Saturday. NFL Draft last weekend. Plus there are a few things I wish to backtrack and cover. Off we go.

Let's start with a current event, that being the Charles Barkley/Draymond Green spat that started last night. For those fans who may have went to sleep early last night and still haven't heard, Charles Barkley and Draymond Green had a war of words during and after Game Two of the Pelicans/Warriors series last night. It stemmed from a scuffle between Green and Rajon Rondo of New Orleans.

Barkley, quote unquote, "I just want someone to punch him in the face."

Then, seconds later, he said, "I really do. I want someone to punch him in the face."

Now, it didn't take Draymond long to respond, because after the Warriors won last night he had some words of his own:

"A lot of guys talk on the TV...stand behind the microphone on the TV screen. Fact of the matter is, if you feel that strongly about something, he's even seen me a million times, then punch me in my face when you see me."

Now, as a Rockets fan who lives in Houston, I have the sense we have no love lost for either of these guys. But something tells me that Draymond isn't all that concerned with Barkley. He's got bigger things to worry about.

Big game for the Rockets tonight, by the way, as they host Utah in game two of the other Western Conference semifinal. The Rockets really need to win this game and go to Utah up 2-0. Utah's home court edge is lethal as Rockets fans know so well; if they somehow squeak one out tonight the Rockets are suddenly in a real dogfight.

Over in the East, let's just say this: The Toronto Raptors are cursed. Cleveland just came off a seventh game win over the weekend, was on 48 hours rest, and Toronto had a double digit lead...and lost.

If they can't beat the Cavs under these circumstances...then when?

As for the Boston/Philadelphia series, Terry Rozier has been quite the find for Boston in point guard Kyrie Irving's absence. Trade bait for down the road?

On to baseball now for just a moment. Honestly, it's way too early for any sort of smack talk early in the baseball season...except when a whiny pitcher on a team who can't hold two game series leads opens his mouth and spews...well, some people may call it fake news, I just call it garbage.

That whiny pitcher is Trevor Bauer of the Cleveland Indians. Take a look: Bauer on the Astros

And you know that Astros pitchers are cheating...how, Trevor? Where's the proof? You know, fans will be fans. It's what we do. But it's another thing entirely for an MLB pitcher to be spouting that garbage, without any proof at all.

Rightfully, many Astros players and even manager AJ Hinch raked him over the coals for that on Twitter yesterday. Hopefully the next time the Astros see Bauer, it will be about 6-0 after the first inning. Not in his favor either.

Very quickly on the NFL Draft, a lot of people will pay attention to the first round and the big names, QBs, etc. that went early but honestly, in reality it's going to be the second and third day picks that determine, in the end, how well these teams do in the draft.

Because, honestly, I'm not sold on any of these quarterbacks. Mayfield I think is a bust waiting to happen, Darnold should have come out last year, Allen to Buffalo is a big risk, and Josh Rosen could make Arizona a bit better but their window came and went and they have to deal with the Rams and 49ers now.

Honestly I think the two biggest steals of the draft were by New England and Houston. I love the Pats getting Michel from Georgia. That's such a Belichick move. I watched the first round Thursday night and wondered when he'd be taken. Then, boom. Pats. He will no doubt be asked to do what a lot of Patriots running backs do, get key carries, catch passes out of the backfield a lot, basically do everything right. I think he's underrated.

I really like the Texans picking up Justin Reid in round 3 also. That guy was supposed to be a first round pick and suddenly dropped to round three...something's up with that. I have a theory on that, but I won't go there here.

Backtracking on a couple of things: First, the NCAA basketball tournament. This year was a great NCAA basketball tournament to be honest. Lots of different things to get casual fans attention. The run by Loyola-Chicago and the fame Sister Jean got received a lot of attention, deservedly so.

Kansas/Duke was a terrific Elite Eight game, IMO the best game of the tournament.

UMBC shocked the world and became the first 16 seed to knock out a number one. What a crazy night that was. That's something UVA and Tony Bennett will never live down. Ever.

I was really impressed by Texas Tech's run also. Chris Beard is a good coach (as he was in Little Rock) and they were a good team. Just ran into the best team and got beat. Nothing to be ashamed of. No idea who Tech brings back next year but if it's the majority of their team they are a definite national title contender.

That team that beat them, by the way, Villanova, is one of the most fun basketball teams I've ever seen. One of the best too, honestly. They could all shoot, all drive, all move the ball, etc. That's the basketball I like.

I'd say I felt bad for a Big 10 school getting beat by them for the title...but honestly I'm not. Houston should have beat Michigan the opening weekend. I'm still in shock Poole made that shot. Houston made a glaring error not covering the inbounds pass.

Finally, I want to touch on a college football story that really got me going not long ago.

Does anyone remember Hugh Freeze? You know, the same Hugh Freeze that got Ole Miss football 21 NCAA violations, a postseason ban and got caught using a female escort service?

He was forced to either resign or be fired. He resigned.

Well he was back in the news not long ago. Apparently, four SEC schools wanted to hire Freeze recently including none other than Alabama, where Nick Saban wanted him to basically run the Crimson Tide offense.

Thank goodness the SEC stepped in and Sankey told Saban and all the other schools who wanted him that it would look really bad for the conference if Freeze got another gig so soon.

My message on that is: Shame on you, Alabama. You are Alabama, the best there is in college football.

You do not need to go rolling around in the dirt with scum like Hugh Freeze. You're the best program there is. Act like it.

Until next time....

Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Super Bowl LII: Destiny Beats Dynasty

Man. It's been a long time since I've done this.

An entire football season in fact. Crazy.

But, I think after another terrific Super Bowl, the time has come for me to resurface again with this. Lots to get to as another football season, thankfully for me because my two teams were absolutely horrible, has come to an end.

But what a way to end it.

Super Bowl LII: Philadelphia Eagles, underdogs the whole way through vs the New England Patriots. The Dynasty. Five time champs. The best quarterback to ever play the game.

If you'd have told me that Brady would throw for 500 yards I'd have told you there's no way Philadelphia would be walking away with the trophy.

But walk away with the trophy they did. Because Nick Foles, who at one point was out of football after several various stops, gave it one more chance not long ago and eventually got a ring.

He earned it too. He played the game of his life. The Patriots could not stop the Philadelphia Eagles offense and Nick Foles' passing attack.

Even when the Patriots (predictably) took the lead 33-32 in the fourth quarter, the Eagles did not fold as Atlanta did a year ago when the Patriots came back on them. That next drive after the Patriots took the lead was clutch; a seven minute drive that drained almost all of the clock.

Yes, Brady had one more shot after that, but the Eagles defense finally did what I felt they had to do in the most critical moment of the game; get to him and apply pressure. That's what caused the turnover that was the biggest nail in the coffin to the Patriots on Sunday.

A few other things I took out of that Super Bowl:

1. I don't know if it was jitters or what, but the kicking game for both teams early in the Super Bowl was really ragged. A couple of extra points missed, a chipshot field goal missed by New England, etc.

2. Philadelphia has three very good running backs which is a huge advantage. Obviously the quarterback is the most important position but depth at running back is key too. Philly has three good ones in Blount, Ajayi and former Wisconsin Badger Corey Clement. One of them is going to free agency...Blount. My guess is he will not be back in Philly next year, they can afford to lose him. Ajayi still has one year on his deal and Clement still has a couple.

3. I still wonder how Patriots receivers get so wide open. Every game.

4. Gronkowski of the Patriots is still the most impossible receiver or tight end to cover in football. That guy is a matchup nightmare.

5. As great as that moment was for Foles, I sense that he could be used as trade bait. He has the choice to option out of his contract after next season and Carson Wentz is still the guy in Philadelphia, playoff run aside. He can be used as bait to get a key guy on defense.

With that said, my way-too-early top 5 for 2018:

1. New England - No folks, the Patriot Death Star isn't going anywhere. Yes, they lost their top two coordinators, but it's still Brady and Belichick. The dynasty is close to being over but it isn't over yet. They will be the team to beat once again barring injury.

2. New Orleans - The Saints are very good and could very easily have been in at least the NFC title game this year. Weapons all over the field; Brees, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara (who is an impressive, explosive young player), Michael Thomas, Willie Snead.

And they have a defense now too.

Their division isn't very good either. Tampa Bay hasn't lived up to what I thought they would, Carolina is ruining Cam Newton, and Atlanta is on the downside. The Saints will win 12 or 13 next year barring injury IMHO.

3. Philadelphia - Maybe they won't go back to back but this is the beginning of a great run for Philadelphia. Carson Wentz has many years ahead of him, two great running backs, very good front four. They will definitely be back in the playoffs a year from now with a shot to repeat.

4. Jacksonville - The arrival of Tom Coughlin to the Jaguars front office changed everything about that team. The expectations, the attitude, etc. They have the talent to win a lot of games and now they act like it. They have a ferocious defense and Fournette and I think with a weak AFC South in front of them they will be right back in contention again.

5. Dallas - This is the out on a limb pick.

I don't even like the Cowboys, but they definitely would have been in the playoffs had Goodell not screwed with Jerry Jones and Elliott. Now Zeke has that behind him and can focus on football. If Elliott plays all 17 and Dallas can shore the defense up somewhat they will definitely be in the playoffs and can make a deep run.

To a bit of college football now. Alabama won the title once again, basically business as usual for them. The second time that Alabama did not win its conference, yet walked out with the big trophy. Funny thing is, the Alabama team of 2016-17 was probably better than this one but lost because of one player. Yet, this year's team walked out with a trophy.

Also the third straight time that Alabama and Clemson met in the playoffs this year, and all three times the winner of that game won the title. And if those two programs keep on the same trajectories, it'll probably happen again in 2019.

On the other side of that national title game, I know a lot of people will be high on Georgia once again with Smart running the show, but I don't think they'll get that good a look again personally. Their SEC West crossovers are LSU and Auburn, and the East will get better. Florida will be better with Mullen, South Carolina is improved with Muschamp running the show, Tennessee you know will have to be better.

One last quick thought on college football especially for any Aggies that may run across this: You vastly overpaid for Fisher. 10 years guaranteed and 75 million. Bad move. By comparison, Nebraska's Scott Frost contract (35 million over 7 years) is a total bargain. There's no way I'd give any coach 10 guaranteed years with that much money.

I said this after the Ags gave Fisher that contract and I'll say it again: If I was Kirk Ferentz at Iowa I'd have walked into Gary Barta's (athletic director) office and told him, "You're paying me 5 million to go 7-5 every year and look what Jimbo Fisher is getting. I want a raise."

And my guess is he'd get it too.

I'll get back more into college football with recruiting signing day coming up tomorrow, will probably have a recap later this week.

Until next time....

Tuesday, May 2, 2017

5/2/17: NFL draft and some NBA Playoffs

Attention: Blog alert is now in effect. Repeat, blog alert is now in effect.

Oh, and hello. Good Tuesday evening to you wherever you may be reading this. We've got major sports playoffs going on, and we had a wild NFL draft last week. So I think it's a good time for my return.

So, then, let's talk draft. Under most circumstances, I prefer to wait to see how everything will play out on the field. But this draft was not most drafts.

First of all, the attendance was off the charts. Most people who know me really well know that I don't particularly care for anything Philadelphia. But Philly stole the show in this draft.

250,000 people attended the draft. All time record.

And if it seemed like there were a lot of trades, it's because there were. There were 38 trades in this draft. Another all time record.

Now, not all of these trades were great. Let's talk about the Draft itself. I'm not going to give out specific draft grades for each team, but I do have varying thoughts.

First thing's first, the Bears helped everyone else in this draft by making one of the stupidest trades I've seen in my years of watching the Draft. I think they're going to regret this trade when it's all over.

They traded not one, not two, not three. They traded four picks to move up ONE spot to take Mitchell Trubisky. A guy who didn't even start a college football game until this past season at North Carolina. And they traded FOUR guys to move up one spot.

You know you did terrible when the Browns fleeced four picks from you.

Speaking of the lowly Browns, I thought they did well, although I don't agree with everything they did. The Myles Garrett selection to start the draft was smart, and I also like them getting Jabrill Peppers. They took several linemen too, in fact four of their picks were either offensive or defensive linemen.

That said, as far as the QB they took in round two, DeShone Kizer, I don't agree with that pick. I think Mahomes and Watson are both quite a bit better than Kizer is, and I don't think he's the answer. I'd have taken a flyer on Miami QB Kaaya before I'd have gone with Kizer and Kaaya went in the SIXTH round.

Speaking of Mahomes, I am impressed that Andy Reid is taking a big swing at quarterback. Reid is usually one of the more conservative coaches in the league so that's what makes it impressive. Mahomes is anything but conservative at quarterback, Reid has likened him to Brett Favre, the ultimate gunslinger. Not only that, the Chiefs traded three picks to move up to get him.

It's obvious to me that Reid is putting Alex Smith on notice: Step up to a championship level or I'll find someone who will.

As for Watson, Houston traded two picks to move up to get him; a small price to pay if you ask me. It was either move up to get him or watch him go off the board and have to draft Kizer which I did not want. There are concerns about Watson's arm strength, but he's a winner.

I don't think he's going to start right away, but I think he'll at least compete. They did not bring him in as a first round pick to sit the bench as a third stringer.

As the result of another trade, I think the Minnesota Vikings got the steal of the draft potentially. They traded a second and a fourth to Cincinnati for the 41st pick, which they used to draft Dalvin Cook. I thought Cook should have gone in the first round, and I thought the Giants would have been wise to snap him up.

They also picked up a center, Pat Elflein of Ohio State, with their second pick which is never a bad play. The Vikings I'd say had a very solid draft.

As a result of the Minnesota/Cincinnati trade, by the way, the Bengals drafted Joe Mixon, who will fit right in at Cincinnati. The team already has troublemakers like Vontaze Burfict who plays over the line quite a bit as well as Pacman Jones, and now has a guy who was caught on camera punching a woman in the face several years ago near the beginning of his college years.

I like the moves that Elway has been making in Denver as well. He got some good value late in the draft (namely Jake Butt from Michigan and this year's Mr. Irrelevant, Chad Kelly at Ole Miss) and he's taking a big gamble on Jamaal Charles now too. Charles is hurt a lot of the time, but if he's healthy he's easily the best running back Denver has.

As a final note on the draft, I have a stat for all of you: Former Nebraska coach and current Youngstown State head man Bo Pelini had more recruits drafted this year (two, Nebraska's Nate Gerry and YSU's Avery Moss) than players from the entire University of Texas football program (one, D'onta Foreman, incidentally enough, to Houston).

Honestly, that fact is astounding to me. How can a program with as much talent in the state and as many resources as Texas only get ONE player drafted?

Funny thing is, I like that draft pick for Houston (Foreman) as well. The team needs another running back because Lamar Miller alone won't do it. Foreman and Miller is a potentially nice combination. They also went and got an offensive tackle fourth round, which obviously won't solve all their offensive line issues but should help.

Before I get out, the local Rockets are still in the NBA Playoffs so let's talk about that too.

In case some of you missed it, last night the Rockets destroyed the five-time world champion San Antonio Spurs by 27 points. And it wasn't even that close; at one point the lead was like 35 points.

Rockets fans here locally are even pretty surprised by that result, and I'm sure many nationally had wide eyes when they saw that score this morning, wondering how that can happen to Popovich and arguably the best run franchise in sports.

The deal is this: First off, speed is a big factor here.

Last night is a reminder to me, and to older Nebraska fans of what used to happen when the Huskers would win the Big Eight in the late 80s and early 90s, and then they'd go down to the Orange Bowl and play either Miami or Florida State and get run off the field. It wouldn't even be close, the Noles and Canes would both be two steps quicker than Nebraska. Nebraska lost to Miami 23-3 in the 1989 Orange Bowl and 22-0 in the 1992 Orange Bowl, and neither game was that close.

The 2016 Music City Bowl when Nebraska played Tennessee last December would also suffice. The Vols lost four games last year, but had six draft picks to Nebraska's one this year. It showed in the bowl game. Nebraska lost by two touchdowns but in reality Tennessee could have scored 70.

Back to how this applies to the Rockets, the Rockets are the much faster team than San Antonio. The Spurs are an older, slower team which doesn't necessarily mean they can't win the series. But they can't win the series playing like they did last night. They have to slow the game down, make the game ugly. If they try to run with the Rockets, the Rockets will run them off the court every time.

The problem for the Spurs though is two fold. The Rockets pass the basketball as well as any team in the league; they were third in assists in the NBA in the regular season. People think the Rockets are the James Harden show and that is not the case.

He is the best player for sure but any of the top eight Rockets can hurt you and they got wide open looks because of the ball movement last night. You can't outrun the basketball if it's moving and if they keep moving the ball and getting open looks, the Spurs are going to have an uphill battle. They play a little like the Spurs of three years ago, who are considered one of the best passing teams in NBA history.

The other part of the problem for the Spurs is the Rockets shot the ball horribly (24 percent from three) against Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City and still won in five games. Now they're out of their slump.

That said, I think Rockets fans know quite well that one game doesn't make a series. However if the Spurs go down 0-2 with the way the Rockets are starting to heat up, I see little more than a snowball's chance that the Spurs could win four of five against Houston with three in Houston. Game Two is absolutely crucial for the Spurs chances.

The Cleveland Cavaliers may not repeat as NBA champions, but they too pass the ball extremely well. I watched a little of their game last night against Toronto, and was impressed with their ball movement. Toronto had little to no chance last night and neither will anyone in the East if the Cavs pass the ball that well.

Finally, don't sleep on the Jazz against Golden State. Not to win, but to make them sweat a little. The Jazz play defense as well as anyone remaining in the playoffs, and Quin Snyder will win Coach of the Year if Mike D'Antoni (Rockets) doesn't get it. It may not matter if the Warriors move the ball like they can and shoot like they can, but I'm impressed with how the Jazz played defense against the Clippers. This is not a team to trifle with.

If you're wondering about baseball, not right now. Not until July when we know where everyone is.

Until next time...

Tuesday, March 21, 2017

3/21/2017: NCAA Tournament, Adam Silver and NFL

Well, here we are at one of the best times of the year. Good evening everyone, I'm in warm, balmy Houston and you're...wherever you are reading this blog. Tonight, we're going to talk about the madness of March, which includes, of course, the NCAA tournament and NFL free agency.

Tonight, though, I'm going to actually start with some professional basketball. I'm going to start with professional basketball because a lot of the fans of the "Association" are not happy with some of these teams resting their players, and, more than that, resting their key players for primetime games which are nationally televised. And it's not just the fans that are unhappy with this development, neither is the NBA's commissioner, Adam Silver.

In fact, Commissioner Silver is upset enough about this issue that he's sent a memo to team owners. He's also warned of "significant penalties" to teams who don't abide by the NBA's rule of letting the league office know when players will start or sit. You can read the information here in this ESPN article: ESPN NBA rest

Here's my response to this: I get where Adam Silver is coming from, these nationally televised Saturday night games make him money and they've been duds two weeks in a row because players have sat. But the first thing he could do is realize that the coaches who do this, the Steve Kerrs, the Greg Popovich's, the Tyronn Lue's, owe it to their team and their fans to do everything possible to win an NBA title first and foremost. If that means resting players at the end of a long stretch, so be it.

That brings me to my next point: if the NBA is going to put these teams on Saturday night on ABC, make your scheduling a little bit better so that coaches, you know, may play everyone that matters. On the 11th when the Warriors played San Antonio on ABC, that was their seventh road game in eight games and their third game in four nights. The Cavs when they did it last Saturday night were playing their fifth game in a week.

Bottom line, the scheduling in the NBA needs major work so that you might actually get to see the best players on a Saturday night.

Meanwhile, here in Houston, the word on the papers and on the social media websites is that star James Harden doesn't want to take games off...he can rest in the offseason. Warning: This next point is not going to be popular with some Rockets fans.

While I admire that philosophy, that philosophy may very well torpedo the Rockets chances to win a championship. They pretty much know their seeding for the playoffs so it couldn't hurt for Harden to take a night off or two.

You realize that there's a chance, a GOOD chance that the Rockets will have to go through Russell Westbrook and OKC, the Spurs, the Warriors and the defending champs if they win the title. If they are to do that, they need Harden healthy and playing at a high level every night.

Oh and newsflash: this isn't a newfangled development. Popovich in San Antonio has been doing this for years. He once sat all of his star players for a regular season game against the Heat when Lebron James was competing for and winning titles in Miami. San Antonio fans love when he does that by the way because they and Popovich couldn't give a rat's patootie about what the NBA office thinks.

Now, let's talk about March Madness. The Big Dance, college basketball's road to a national championship. I honestly can't say this past weekend was the best opening four days I've ever seen for a March Madness, but Saturday and Sunday was one of the craziest.

One of the things I noticed in the opening days of the tournament was just how terrible the refereeing is. And I'm not just talking one game, I'm talking all across the board.

On Saturday, for example, Northwestern got hosed when the referees missed a sure goaltend on Gonzaga in that Saturday matchup in Salt Lake City. The Wildcats were down by 20 or so, and should have cut Gonzaga's lead to three late with this Gonzaga missed goaltend

The Gonzaga player who should have been called puts his hand up through the basket to stop the ball from going in. The very definition of goaltend. Worse yet, they called a technical foul on Chris Collins the Northwestern coach. Gonzaga hit two technical free throws to make it a seven point game which is a four point swing.

It's sad because it ended a great year for Northwestern where they went to the Dance for the first time in school history in men's basketball.

And that was only one of the more egregious errors this past weekend. In the North Carolina/Arkansas game on Sunday, North Carolina had two key calls go in their favor when Arkansas had them on the ropes and UNC shot 17 more free throws than the Razorbacks.

Johnathan Motley of Baylor got called for a questionable fifth foul and had to leave their matchup with USC on Sunday with his team in a tight game. Baylor managed to win despite that. Still, the refereeing was atrocious in many games.

The other thing that sticks out in my mind is that Villanova and Louisville got hosed bigtime. Especially the defending champion Villanova...whose idea on the selection committee was it to make Wisconsin an eight seed and put them against the defending champs? Wisconsin was more of a five seed than an eight. The same goes for Louisville...they had to deal with the hottest team in the NCAA in Michigan who got a seven when they should have been a five.

Also, I wonder how does Michigan coach John Beilein get so underrated every year? He's as good as your Coach Ks, your Roy Williams, your Bill Self, Mark Few, Sean Miller, etc. but he's not talked about as much as them.

I keep asking myself that question every time I watch his teams play whether they were at West Virginia or now Michigan. The guy is a big-game coach and I love watching his offenses play most years. Some of his former players at Michigan are now in the NBA.

Now, let's talk about NFL free agency, starting with the local team, the Houston Texans. Brock Osweiler was such a terrible quarterback (his quarterback rating at one point late last year was even worse than David Carr when he was here) that the Texans were desperate for, and got, a trade partner to give Osweiler away two weeks ago.

That trade partner was the Cleveland Browns, who have no quarterback to speak of and haven't had a quarterback to speak of since Tim Couch. And even the Browns don't want Brock Osweiler. They were trying to trade the guy the second they got him.

Meanwhile, the Texans wait with bated breath on the fate of quarterback Tony Romo, who as of this moment is still a Dallas Cowboy. They won't trade for him, but if he is released you can bet the Texans will be one of the first teams to jump on him.

Next, let's talk about the New England Patriots. The scary thing for the rest of the league is that the Hoodie, Belichick, is now starting to throw trades for and money out to some of the best players in the league. And what's even scarier, is that these are young players just entering their prime.

Brandin Cooks, former Saints wide receiver, who the Patriots got for a first and a third round pick, is only 23 years old. Kony Ealy, who they traded a second round pick in this year's draft to Carolina for, is only 25. And Stephon Gilmore, who they signed away from Buffalo, is only 26. That Gilmore signing is big by the way, because cornerback Logan Ryan left for Tennessee.

Bottom line is, even when Brady leaves (which seems to not be happening any time soon), the Patriots are going to be in this for a long time. It's not like they're signing 35 year old over the hill retreads. They've got some young building blocks now to keep them in contention for years to come.

Another team that's having a good offseason in my view is Carolina. They signed left tackle Matt Kalil, formerly a Minnesota Viking, which should provide good blindside protection for Cam Newton. They signed Julius Peppers also, who may have a little left in his tank being back in Carolina. And they signed cornerback Captain Munnerlyn, who was a solid Minnesota Viking.

Finally, let's talk about the two New York teams. First, the Giants. This is going to be the team of huge egos, especially at wide receiver since they added Brandon Marshall. Oh, the egos at that position. We have a guy in Marshall who is a locker room cancer, and we have Odell Beckham who punched a hole in the wall after his team lost in the playoffs.

Oh and the Giants better hope Eli gets better AND doesn't get hurt. They signed Geno Smith as a backup. Good thing they have that high-priced, talented defense otherwise they'd be in a lot of trouble.

And then there's the Jets. Another year, another mediocre to bad quarterback. They signed Josh McCown for one year and six million dollars. This is not a wise move for a team that needs to rebuild, not put a band-aid over the wound like this move is. They would be smart to lose as much as possible in 2017, see what quarterback Bryce Petty's got, and if he overperforms they can hold on to him. If not, they can maybe draft Sam Darnold, the quarterback from USC in 2018 and hope they hit a home run with that pick.

But McCown? This is the same old, same old from the Jets. It's the put the bandaid on the wound, rather that treat the wound long term to make it better. But then again, what do you expect from the team that's had Mark Sanchez (who by the way, won four games in the playoffs as a Jets QB which sounds ludicrous), Geno Smith, Ryan Fitzpatrick and just terrible quarterback play pretty much ever since Vinny Testaverde in the late 1990s.

That's all she wrote for this post. Until next time....

Monday, February 6, 2017

Super Bowl LI: The Aftermath, Tom Brady is the greatest QB ever

So, here we are. The day after the greatest Super Bowl I think I’ve ever seen (I was born in 1984).

Good afternoon, everyone, wherever you may be. For the second time in two tries, there was a great Super Bowl in my hometown that lived up to the hype. In fact, for the second time in less than a year dating back to last April, we had a championship game in my hometown of Houston that lived up to the hype.

OK, so where to begin? I’m actually going to start with something that DIDN’T happen on the field of play. Let’s begin…with the trophy ceremony. Oh, there are so many things to get to related to that trophy ceremony.

The tension and obvious acrimony, first of all, was thick between Commissioner Goodell (it makes me sick to say that this man is even the commissioner of a major sports league, and I’ll get to that in a moment) and Tom Brady and Robert Kraft.

For an organization as tacit and robotic as the Patriots tend to be between the lines, you could feel the joy and exultation come out last night after they won. Rightly or wrongly, this is an organization, along with its star player, that has been through the wringer over the last couple of years.

And mainly over a few deflated footballs. Allegedly. Never mind that the NFL never actually proved it, just that it was “more probable than not.” Let’s not forget the team they played last night, the Atlanta Falcons, have pumped fake noise into their stadium in the past. Let’s also not forget the Colts, who the deflategate stuff started with, pump fake noise into their stadium too.

Brady's mother has been battling cancer as well. That was I am sure another impetus for last night.

That brings me to Goodell. Ah, Roger the Dodger Goodell, the Commissioner (and I use that term loosely) of the NFL. This guy is such a liar and a fraud it is unbelievable. He said in the week before the game that “it would be an honor” to hand a fifth Lombardi Trophy to Brady.

Yet, that’s not what he did. In fact, he couldn’t get off that podium fast enough for his liking. The guy basically just shoved the trophy into Robert Kraft’s hands, and got out of there as fast as he could. Goodell was flat out lying through his teeth, as I felt he was all along; the guy hadn’t been to Foxboro for a Patriots game one time since the whole “Deflategate” thing started.

Not only that when he came within arm’s reach of Brady, the guy couldn’t even look at Tom Brady right in the eye. Not one iota of eye contact.

I know that America is up in arms that the Patriots won yet another championship, and I get it, but the highlight of the night for me was that Goodell got figuratively undressed at the trophy ceremony by Brady, Kraft, and the whole Patriots fanbase (who booed him right out of Houston by the way, and rightly so). Kraft especially eviscerated him after Goodell left the stage.

In any sport at any time, Goodell is the most corrupt commissioner I have seen and it’s not even close. Neither David Stern nor NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, as bad as they were/are (Stern is retired now), are in his league.

OK, now to the game. Ah, the game was pretty good too. In fact, I thought until last night the Patriot/Seahawks game a couple years ago was the best Super Bowl I’ve seen. Nope. This one dwarfs it completely.

Let’s say it now boys and girls: Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback to ever play football.

Repeat after me: Tom Brady is the greatest quarterback to ever play football.

The guy has been a starting quarterback at Super Bowls more times than any quarterback in history (seven), won more Super Bowls than any quarterback in history (five), and not only that take a look at the teams he beat to win those titles.

Rams 2001-02. The Greatest Show on Turf. Going for two Super Bowl wins in three years. Beat em.

Panthers 2003-04. The hottest team in the NFL going into that Super Bowl. Delhomme had a great year as did Stephen Davis. Beat em.

Eagles 2004-05. Had McNabb and Owens. Best Eagles team ever probably. Beat em.

Seahawks 2014-15. Defending champs, Legion of Boom, looking to go back to back. The distraction of Deflategate. Beat em.

And that Atlanta team last night played a marvelous football game. Specter of Deflategate still looming. The revenge tour. Brady's mother fighting cancer. Beat Atlanta, too.

You can say Joe Montana is better but here’s the thing: What would happen if you gave Brady Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Dwight Clark, Roger Craig and Brent Jones? He might win ten Super Bowls. And Brady has more rings.

He wasn’t the only reason the Patriots came away with another trophy at the end of this game though. The Atlanta coaching staff made some huge mistakes and they are a large reason the Falcons lost this game.

You had to know fans in San Francisco, who are about to see Kyle Shanahan take over the 49ers, had to be cringing watching that fourth quarter last night. His play calling was absolutely atrocious. He calls for a pass up 28-12 on third and two about halfway through the fourth quarter. Ryan gets strip-sacked and the Patriots got the turnover they needed.

No, the loss of Tevin Coleman didn’t help (he got hurt a play earlier), but that was a stupid play call. Run the ball and even if you don’t get it, you punt and make Brady go the length of the field.

Then, after the Patriots get it within eight, he goes stupid again. Second and nine, ball at the Patriots 22 up 28-20 after that ridiculous catch by Julio Jones (quite possibly the best catch I’ve seen in a Super Bowl, or it’s on the short list), and he calls for a PASS? With three minutes to go?

Uh, no. Again, that’s where you run the football twice, get it maybe a little closer for Matt Bryant, you kick a field goal and you win the title. As great as Brady played, he probably doesn’t come back from 31-20 with two minutes left.

In fact, the Falcons ran the ball just FIVE, count them, FIVE, times in the second half. That’s absurd.

And the 49ers are giving this guy the keys to the kingdom when their franchise is at a low point. Oh, San Francisco, I feel for you. And they’re going to sign him likely to a six year contract.

As much as I feel for the Niner fans, the ones I truly feel for are the suffering Atlanta Falcons fans that are out there today. They deserved a better fate. That’s a sports city, too, that hasn’t had that much success. It’s a city that’s lost more National Hockey League franchises (two) than they have major sports championships (one, the Braves in 1995 and that was in a strike shortened year).

It’s a city that saw Larry Bird outlast Dominique Wilkins in a classic NBA playoff duel in a game seven in 1988, since then the Hawks have never been the same, saw the Braves only win one title in the 1990s though they were in contention every year (the 1991 and 1996 World Series losses are especially galling for Braves fans), and have seen the Falcons make the Super Bowl only twice including last night.

And if you include Georgia and Georgia Tech athletics, those separate sports histories are pretty sordid as well with occasional special years.

On a bit of a spiritual note, I’m a practicing Catholic and I thought the Falcons actually might have the spiritual edge, if one chooses to believe in that sort of thing as I do.

I thought I wasn’t going to say this after the Falcons lost last night, but you know what I’ll say it anyways. A chaplain for the Falcons showed up at Sunday church service yesterday. How he got to Kingwood for a Sunday Mass on the day of the Super Bowl I know not, but it was fun hearing him speak. After he spoke, I thought it was a sign from above that maybe it was destiny and it was Atlanta’s time.

Destiny denied. And unfortunately for Atlanta it was in large part their own undoing.

As a final note about this Super Bowl, I wouldn’t be so quick to assume the Falcons will be back again. The history, especially recent history, of teams that lose Super Bowls are not good. In fact, since the Bills and the Cowboys met in two straight Super Bowls in the 1990s, the history of teams getting back are not good period.

Since that point, only two teams in each league have won consecutive conference titles. The 1997-98 and 1998-99 Denver Broncos turned the trick, and in 2003-04 and 2004-05 so did the Patriots. In the NFC, the Packers went to two straight Super Bowls in 1996-97 and 1997-98 and the Seahawks did it a few years back in 2013-14 and 2014-15.

Now, the Patriots would have been good to go whether they won or lost last night. The AFC and especially the AFC East is very weak (none of the Dolphins, Jets or Bills are really any good); I think the second best team in the AFC until Derek Carr’s injury was the Oakland Raiders and I think a Raider/Patriot AFC title game in 2018 is a distinct possibility.

The Falcons though will have a much tougher road simply because they have to face Drew Brees, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston each twice. And generally when you have these chances in front of you, they don’t come around again.


Until next time….

Sunday, January 22, 2017

1/22/17: NFL Championship Sunday, Bama/Clemson, and Yordano Ventura

Well, it’s been a while, my friends. Good afternoon to you, wherever you may be. Here we are again, at Championship Sunday of the NFL season. Hard to believe it’s gone by this fast.

Three games left of football this year. That’s all. And no, I don’t count the knock down, drag out game that is the Pro Bowl. If I never saw that game again, it would be too soon.

So then, let’s talk about the two championship games.

First, let’s get into the game coming up in just minutes. Green Bay at Atlanta. The red hot Aaron Rodgers vs Matt Ryan, who has had a spectacular, MVP caliber season.

To begin with, I never bought the crap that the Green Bay wide receivers who have been banged up (namely, Geronimo Allison, Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams) were going to sit this game out. No way. This is two games from a possible Super Bowl championship. If you can walk, you’re going to play. That’s the bottom line.

They may not be 100 percent, but rest is for next year. At this point, with a trip to Houston on the line, you give it what you have.

They’ve still got a tough go of it though, because Atlanta’s offense is going to score and it’s going to score a lot. An MVP caliber quarterback. Weapons all over the field. Two very good running backs.

If you like defensive football, this isn’t the game for you. Go find something else to do if that’s the case would be my advisement. Quite frankly, that applies to both games, and I’ll get into the second game in just a moment.

I’m looking around and I don’t see how both teams are kept out of the 30s eventually. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both teams break 40. That’s how dominant the offenses I think are going to be in this game.

Atlanta will score and score at will, there’s no question. But then on the other side, you have Rodgers who is doing things that some of us have never seen before. Right now, the level he’s playing at is on the level of the all-time greats: Brady, Montana, Elway, Staubach, etc.

I’m thinking that even if the Packers receivers were out, that Aaron Rodgers is the only QB I know of that can spin straw into gold. Or green and gold.

I think in the end it’s going to be decided by a field goal, a three point game. It’s going to be a 38-35, 45-42 type game. It could very well be that the last team with the ball is going to win the game.

One last thing about this game: No matter what happens to the Packers in this game, or the Super Bowl if they get there, you can just engrave their name on the NFC North title for 2017-2018 right now and put them in the playoffs. Go ahead and do it.

The Vikings epically collapsed this year and may very well lose Adrian Peterson, the Bears suck, and the Lions were a total fraud. They got to the playoffs and Stafford had a good year but they didn’t beat anyone that’s any good. As long as Green Bay has Rodgers, the North is their territory for the foreseeable future.

Now to the second game: The Steelers and the Patriots. A rivalry that honestly, if we’re looking at results, really isn’t that much of a rivalry.

It really isn’t that much of a rivalry if we’re being honest because the Steelers more often than not, lose to the Patriots in the playoffs, in fact they’ve lost to them twice in conference championship games in the last 15 some-odd years.

And I really don’t think that’s going to change today either.

Let’s put aside Antonio Brown’s Facebook live antics for just a moment. I’ll get to that in a second.

The worst thing that could have happened to the Steelers was that the Patriots won ugly against Houston, which they did. Brady threw two interceptions. He got hit a lot. He didn’t play very well and neither did his offense.

Yet, they won the game 34-16 and in the process left Belichick ways to keep his team in top form, fix their mistakes and be on point for tonight’s game.

In layman’s terms? I think the Patriots will be at the top of their game tonight. And I don’t think Pittsburgh’s best beats New England’s best. Especially not in Patriotville.

The other factor to look at is that this isn’t a typical championship caliber Steeler defense. Defense has always been the Steelers identity. This year’s unit has a couple of big names (James Harrison, Laurence Timmons, Ryan Shazier namely) but they just lack the consistency.

And their offense is good (especially Roethlisberger, Bell and Brown), but it’s going to have to be a lot better than it was last Sunday in Kansas City for there to be a Steeler upset. Namely, they’re going to have to score touchdowns not field goals tonight. Field goals aren’t gonna cut it tonight because the Patriots will score

And they’re going to score a lot.

On Antonio Brown’s Facebook live deal, I’m glad I waited until I found out that Brown has a marketing deal with Facebook before I posted this. In fact, for those who don’t know, it’s a six figure deal. A very lucrative deal, which explains his actions Sunday in Kansas City where he Facebook lived the Pittsburgh celebration. A celebration in which Steeler coach Mike Tomlin called the Patriots “a-holes.”

That didn’t help either by the way. Brady and the Patriots are already mad at the world because of Deflategate, and they don’t need any more motivation. I get why Brown did what he did, he’s got deals, but he did it on Steeler time and in the week of the biggest game of the year.

You better step up, Mr. Brown. You better step up big-time or you’ll have to hear it all offseason.

The Steelers will score but it won’t be enough. My forecast envisions Patriots 42-28.

Now to a couple of other items. First, I want to back-track and talk about the national title game between Alabama and Clemson.

Alabama fans who read this, whatever you do, don’t blame the refs for losing. You got beat by a better team on that night. In fact, you had the refs in your pocket at times in that game.

Reuben Foster should have been kicked out for targeting in the first quarter of that game, and on two occasions where Clemson was trying to go hurry-up offense, officials stopped the game for a needless review which helped Alabama.

Bottom line is, Clemson, and particularly Watson, outplayed Alabama that night and deserved to win. I don’t think Clemson is the greatest national champ I’ve ever seen, but when it mattered they beat everyone in front of them.

Last thing, a story that just came in today from baseball: Kansas City Royals pitcher Yordano Ventura, with one of the best arms in baseball, sadly, lost his life in a car accident this morning. He was 25.

It’s a reminder to all of us that life is very short. Live every day like it’s your last because you never know when it’s going to be your time.

Enjoy your NFL championship Sunday, wherever you may be. Only minutes away now.


Until next time…..