Been a while since I've done this. Don't know how many months.
You might have noticed the word "midterm" in the title. I put that in there for a reason. People may have noticed there is a rather...big...midterm election day two weeks from tomorrow. Without discussing too much, no matter what side of the ledger you stand on, I encourage everyone to go exercise their civic rights and go vote.
Well, now that that's cleared up...
We are also pretty much halfway through both the college football and NFL seasons (college might be a little more than half done), so I think it's time for a midterm report for both the college and pro levels.
Let's start with the college game. I'll first make this point: Unless they have major injuries, in college football this year it's Alabama and everyone else.
I'll put it this way: If Clemson, Alabama, Notre Dame or heaven forbid anyone else plays their A-game and Bama plays their A-game, Bama's A-game wins every time this year.
The one Achilles heel for Alabama, through all the years Saban has been coaching, is the quarterback. A.J. McCarron was a very good player for Alabama when he played there. He won two national titles, and nearly a three-peat until that fluky game against Auburn.
But Tua Tagovailoa is a stud. The scary thing? That guy's got this year AND next before he goes to the NFL. He is by far the best quarterback Saban has had at Alabama...it's not close. They were up 28-0 on Tennessee - a program that is improving though you can't see it yet - before you could even blink.
Could LSU beat them in two weeks? Yeah. Anything can happen in Death Valley at night. But LSU's A-game cannot beat Alabama's A-game. It's just that simple. With that QB, they have ZERO weaknesses. And their defense is getting better, as the CBS guys said Saturday? Yikes.
That having been said, here are some teams that in my view are overrated, underrated, should be rated, improving and maybe even a few disappointments mixed in:
Overrated: Georgia. Way overrated. This team is ranked 7th in the AP Poll and 6th by the Coaches Poll. You have to be kidding me. Want to know the combined records of the teams Georgia has beat? 20-22. The one good team they played was LSU who beat them by 20 points. It wasn't close.
Could they prove me wrong and beat Florida, sure they could. But they aren't even close to being a national title caliber team this year. They had their shot last year and blew it. They also have major offensive line issues: LSU sacked Jake Fromm three times in that game.
Oklahoma. Another team that had a great look at a title with Mayfield a year ago and blew it...now they aren't quite the same team. They're ranked 8th in both polls. Not a top 10 team in my view.
This is also a team that gives up a bunch of points on a weekly basis: 27 to Iowa State, 33 to Baylor, 48 to Texas and 27 to TCU. They still have to play Texas Tech, Oklahoma State (though in a down year) and at West Virginia before the season is over too. That Texas loss won't be their last loss this year.
Kentucky - They're a great story, only lost to A&M in a very close overtime game, but I'm not sure I'd have them at 12th which is where the AP has them. 14th where the Coaches has them is a bit better.
They are seven point underdogs to Mizzou for a reason this week, and they still have to play Georgia and an improving Tennessee squad as well.
Underrated:
Central Florida - Riddle me this: Central Florida has won 20 straight games. Yes, 20 straight games and will likely be favored to run the table once again. Yet, they are ranked TENTH by both college football polls.
This is criminally awful in my view. With that streak, and having beaten very good South Florida and Auburn teams in that stretch, they should be in the hunt to go to the PLAYOFF, not ranked 10th and having next to no shot. The playoff as it is now is better than the BCS, but it's exclusive to only a select few.
Texas A&M - Yes, the Aggies have two losses, but in my view at 16th they are kind of underrated, and they did beat Kentucky in OT. Besides, look at who those losses came to. The best team, Alabama (and they covered the point spread) and the second best team, Clemson, by only two points.
If the Aggies run the table and beat LSU, they will have a very good shot to be in a New Year's Six bowl game. As they should.
Washington State - Ranked 14th and 15th, despite having one loss (which was a very close game in and of itself). The Pirate, Mike Leach, despite the terrible ending to last year's season, just continues to win games.
They aren't out of the woods; they still have to win at Stanford (this week) and at home against their rival, Washington. But win both of those games, and you might see Mike Leach sail into a Pac-12 title game...or better yet, win it.
South Florida - How must it feel for Charlie Strong to have an undefeated football team (and a very strong team for the second year in a row) and not only barely crack the top 20, worse yet be 7.5 point underdogs on the road at Houston this week? Talk about no respect.
Disappointments:
Washington - When I think disappointments, Washington comes to mind for me. When I looked at this team and their veteran QB, Jake Browning, and their conference, and I looked at their schedule, I thought: OK, if they get by Auburn, they have a real good shot to run the table and be in the Final Four, right?
Well, they didn't get by Auburn and then they went to Oregon and blew that game too. Now, even though they control their own destiny once again, they still have to get by Stanford and their state neighbors from the Palouse.
Auburn - I didn't necessarily think Auburn was a national title contender this year, or even a conference title contender, but I thought with Stidham, the former Baylor signal caller, at quarterback, that if things broke their way they could surprise people again.
They already have three losses and are out of any sort of conference title contention.
Wisconsin - Another team that, when I looked at their schedule, I thought, OK, this team might lose one or two games, but they'll win their division rather easily. No one else is any good. Some thought this team could have a chance to compete for the Final Four.
But following a HOME loss to BYU (though out of conference), a near disaster at Iowa, and a blowout loss at Michigan, this team is far from a lock to win their own DIVISION. Iowa is playing good ball and Wisconsin has loseable games left.
Improving:
Tennessee - There won't be many wins right away for the Vols, but at times, the potential has been there for how good this program can be under Jeremy Pruitt. Yes, they got smacked by Alabama. Everyone gets smacked by Alabama this year.
Beating Auburn at Auburn, no matter how disappointing they are, was a big step for Tennessee going forward. If the Vols are lucky they might squeak seven wins this year. Their last five games are all winnable. Not saying they'll win em all, but they're winnable. Even Kentucky goes to Neyland.
UCLA - Don't look now, but the Bruins have won two games in a row, after a very rough start for Chip Kelly. They've got the Utes coming to town on a short week. If I was Utah, I would not take that game lightly.
Nebraska - I think we Nebraska fans knew the going might be rough for Scott Frost and the Huskers at first, but if you were buying stock in a team, I think Fox analyst Joel Klatt said it best.
You buy the Huskers now and watch that stock slowly rise over the next few years. It will take time before they win nine games on the reg again, but what they can be showed in last week's win. The team has gotten better week to week since getting rid of some program cancers. Ohio State game will be rough, but the team might win a couple more games this year.
On the NFL side, we're also pretty much halfway through the year, maybe a tad less including the Giants/Atlanta game tonight. Some surprises and disappointments from there too:
Surprises:
Washington - Considering Philly was a Super Bowl favorite coming into the year (more on them later), it's quite the surprise that it's Alex Smith and the Redskins that are the first place team so far.
Smith is doing what Smith does, be very efficient. He's completed 63 percent of his passes, for nearly 1400 yards, seven touchdowns and two picks with a QB rating of 91.9.
The Redskins aren't in the clear by any means, but they're the favorite in the NFC East right now because Philly has lost its way a bit.
Detroit - After their first two games, I thought, oh boy this team's headed for the bottom of the barrel.
But lo and behold after three of their last four including wins over Brady and Rodgers, the pesky Lions are 3-3 and right back in the playoff hunt. As per usual, Matt Stafford is leading the charge for them; his numbers are actually better than Smith. Better QB rating, better completion percentage, more yards, more touchdowns.
Their next games are key though. Home for Seattle, and then even tougher; in November they play the Vikings, the Bears twice and the Panthers once. And then a home game with the Rams.
Carolina - I know they had a quality team last year but usually it's every other year they have a really good team. This time they've got it back to back. That comeback in Philly was impressive. I thought New Orleans would run away with that division but Carolina is staying in it.
Kansas City - I wondered how good they'd be with the first year guy, Mahomes, at QB this year.
I didn't think they'd be this good.
If given a choice I'd still go with the Pats and their experience in January but Mahomes has made a statement. He is elite, as I thought he was when he came out in the draft. I thought it might take a year or two. It's taken no time at all.
Disappointments:
Philadelphia - I think coming off the season they had a year ago, most of us including myself thought: This team could win it all again. Devastating running game. Tough defense. Two very good QBs. Pederson's a good coach. They're loaded.
I picked the Saints to go to the Super Bowl but I wouldn't have been surprised if Philly won it all again.
They have lost their way. I don't know what's going on there, but if you're the defending champs and you have a 17 point lead in the fourth, you find a way to get that game won.
Pittsburgh - They too seem to be a franchise in a bit of a rut. LeVeon Bell's not playing, their defense doesn't resemble the Steel Curtain at all and even though they got a big division win over Cincinnati recently, that division seems a mish-mash of average to above average teams. Maybe they win it but they're nowhere near what I consider to be a championship caliber team.
Jacksonville - What has become obvious is that without Leonard Fournette, Blake Bortles and Jacksonville are nothing. He's only played in two games this year, against the Giants and Jets. Without him, the Jags are 1-4 and are no longer the favorite to win that division with the Texans having the three AFC South teams at home in the back half of the season.
If given a choice, Patriots/Saints is still my Super Bowl pick, just as it was at the beginning of the season. The LA Rams are the best team in the NFL RIGHT NOW, yes. But in January, I will bet on Drew Brees.
Thus ends the NFL and college football midterm report.
Until next time....
